The impending big lockdown in two days' time looks much worse than originally imagined.  Those endless laps biking around the compound might end up being coveted freedom if the scenario goes as follows  (from today's newspaper)

Starting from 5am on March 28th, Shanghai has implemented nucleic acid screening in batches with the Huangpu River as the boundary.  The first batch covers Pudong [while the next will be Puxi, i.e. downtown].  During the lockdown, residents are asked to stay at home and receive two PCR tests.  Staying at home includes not leaving the house, not going into the corridor, not going to the underground garage, and not going to open-air areas and other community outdoor space activities such as walking, gathering and chatting, walking pets, etc.   People cannot take deliveries themselves or have contact with delivery staff.  If they need to take deliveries or throw out garbage, they shall ask volunteers for assistance.  The only time to go outdoors is for PCR testing, of which there will be two tests within the 4-day period

These draconian rules leave more questions than answers.  Not the least of the anxiety centers around food delivery.  And for those with pets?  It's a nightmare.  Believe it or not there do exist die-hard Party believers who would respond by saying tough cookies, you had several days to buy your vegetables and we can trust the government to provide daily supplies  (more on this in future entries)

So there you have it.  You can't even go do a stair-climbing workout, let alone go spinning around the compound on a bicycle.  On the other hand, having lived in China for almost 20 years, nobody follows the rules literally.  If they did, they wouldn't get anywhere.  So there will most definitely be 'exceptions' made as the lockdown goes on, and as usual, people will find ways to break the rules covertly. 

With this knowledge in hand, people are already trying to escape Shanghai ahead of time.  The situation very closely resembles Wuhan in 2020.  Not surprisingly I've done the research and found about a half-dozen potential escape routes out of the city borders where a bicycle could be used.  The map says they're all closed, even the most minor backroads.  Is this really the case?  The only way to find out is to do a 60-70km bike ride and try, but I just don't have a good feeling about this.  Even if I somehow made it out, hotels in the next province would refuse to accept me due to the travel history code on my phone.   Staying at friends' places in the next province?  Forget about it also.  I casually inquired about it.  One friend told me he went to Shanghai in early March and the guards at his compound requested his travel code when he crossed back in.  18 days later they quarantined him for a week.  So if it's that strict for him, there's no way in hell his compound would take anyone like me riding across a provincial border.  

That being said, I'm astonished to find out both the airports are still operating as well as the train station.  People can and are leaving the city in this way on domestic flights, although it's doubtful they'll get anywhere without a quarantine.  But maybe they can?  Who knows.  

Some amateur advice here:   Lockdowns don't work.  If you're going to do them, do them early.  Unfortunately this is never the case and they are always doing too late.  Including with this one.