It didn't take much to see the aftermath of this one coming.  About a week or so ago, the authorities seemingly did a 180-degree turn on their zero covid policies.  Just like that, it went from mass lockdowns and testing to removing all the risk areas in the city as well as tearing down the health code checks, travel itinerary checks, and basically everything that the last 3 years of my journal entries hinged upon.  Including this lockdown journal as the climax of all that.

So now it's basically wide open.  You can go out, you can eat at restaurants, go to bars and clubs, do a variety of activities without having to scan QR codes or show your PCR test results.  If you want to get tested and scan codes anyway, be my guest, you can do that too.  For now.  Most importantly you can travel domestically without restrictions anymore and it is only a matter of time before the international quarantines are reduced.  Hong Kong already scrapped their quarantine just today  (Dec 13 2022) and the mainland is eagerly working with them to re-open the border. 

For this brief moment in history, I find myself in agreement with what the Chinese government is doing right now.  At least in the short term, I can see the need for the government to let covid rip and I am arguing in support of the view that it is unfair for other countries to target travelers coming out of China with more testing and quarantines etc...  Why should be punished for traveling abroad now when we already had the shit kicked out of us for months during the lockdown?  

But this sudden twist in thinking can be a trap.  Everyone is so excited and in support of the government scrapping zero covid that they are willing to forget why that policy began in the first place, and with that all the suffering.   Everyone's minds in China work in the short timeframe.  So for now they're all giddy about the return to normal life that they're willing to forget all the suffering that just happened before.

On the other hand, now you also have people scared silly of catching the actual covid virus as it indeed IS running rampant.  The previous "emergency" to stop covid only delayed the real emergency, if you can even call it that, of covid running unchecked.  So public anxiety is now through the roof.  Cases are everywhere.  If you know someone, they either have covid or know someone who does.  Estimates are that the big peak will happen in mid-January and by that time up to 80% of the population is expected to catch covid or be exposed in some way or the other.

There is no other way to put this:  you WILL catch covid.  Trying to avoid it is impossible.  As for me there is a 100% chance that I have already been exposed and I can prove it.

But here's the thing:  for almost 3 years the public has been told to be scared of covid.  While the zero covid policy is now abandoned, it carried forward in a momentum of its own based on the way people are acting right now.  I've never seen anything like it. 

Here are some of the biggest changes in the last week:

1. Mask wearing on the street is nearly 100%.  There was a short honeymoon period during the initial 'soft-opening' in early December when people were euphoric about the changes.  They were somewhat not wearing masks.  That all changed suddenly once the actual covid infections soared through the roof

2. People are avoiding social gatherings and reverting to the 2020-style social distancing tactics seen in other nearby countries that didn't lock down.  The best comparison to make is with Japan.  We are now where they were some time earlier.

3. Schools and other businesses are going back online.  The only difference now is I can actually leave the compound and go for bike rides between classes.  From a teacher's point of view it is ideal because it is less work and there is still free time to hit the gym and do shopping etc..    Assuming of course the gyms keep running which now they likely will at reduced capacity to try and make up for lost business.

My prediction is this will go on for some time and get worse and worse as the peak hits hard, estimated in mid-January.  Then China will eventually recover by building an immunity barrier and move towards the same direction as the rest of the world.

But for now this tidal wave of covid is just getting started.  All the zero-covid policy did was delay the inevitable.  

Here comes the million dollar question:  why couldn't they have just done this earlier instead of locking down the city?  While this covid tidal wave will rip through in about the same time as the lockdown, don't you think this is far less of a problem to catch a flu than it is to endure all the crazy shit we had to over those two months?