Day L17: When is this Over?

Nobody really knows when this will end but if we're at the peak now it will likely be at least another month from now before freedom happens.

In all likelihood this looks like we're at the peak now

This graph gives a citywide view. Hope may also be found or taken away in your compound. If there are 7 days since the latest positive case was reported, the compound relaxes into what is called a 'control area'. This means you can actually walk around the compound instead of being locked inside your house. Unfortunately the clock resets whenever a new covid case is found. Even so as I mentioned in a previous entry, none of this stuff really matters. Whoever is in charge interprets the rules in the way they want.

I took this to mean that a positive case in our compound resurfaced after five days and the soonest we can be "released" is on Day 26

It seems that mid-May is likely the earliest date we'll be somewhat back to normal, that is a month later from now. This isn't too far off from my original prediction but the Global Times (a CCP Party source) says otherwise.

Cases may peak this week and [this] wave may finish as early as the end of next month, experts said. Compared with the new cases reported on Wednesday, although the total number of cases on Thursday was higher, the number of silent carriers discovered in communities slightly decreased. The number of new cases reported at the community level has been decreasing as most new cases are found in closed-loop areas or quarantine facilities which shows that the strict lockdown and preventive measures are working, and that's a positive sign. According to the model [by a university professor at Peking University] the daily new cases may fall below 100 in mid-June when the outbreak is expected to be well under control. The total number of infections in Shanghai is likely to reach 650,000-700,000 by the middle of June [he] told the Global Times on Thursday.

OK, so they're relying on computer models. Here's how I think we'll see this play out: A peak in cases will happen soon, or has just happened. Then gradually, more and more compounds will come out of lockdown. This will create more and more bubbles of 'zero covid areas' that will likely be patched together and limited freedom will happen in those bubbles that are blocked off from others.

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