August 27, 2024
The Trip Back to Reality
In terms of the actual travel involved, it couldn't have gone any smoother.
After waking up nice and late, we enjoyed the delicious breakfast food at the Sananwan. Everything was then more or less packed. I was amazed by how light the load was now compared to when the trip started way back in Japan. That was, after all, the point. Yet to see the final product happen was the power of compounding many small actions, one at a time. It motivated me to continue to set goals and apply this kind of principle.
Sophia had to do some online trading work. Meanwhile, I had an excess budget of 9000 baht from the Thai travel that needed to be deposited in my account. So I set off on the other bicycle stored at the guesthouse and enjoyed how smooth of a ride it was. There was only a couple of kilometers to the Big C but this Montague seemed to ride a lot easier compared to the new one I had taken throughout this trip. It was hard to explain.
During the ride, I basically planned the next trip: it would involve flying here directly for Chinese New Year and using this bike. A lot of repair and maintenance needed to be done on it, so that could happen in ProBike downtown. A route could be planned as time goes on.
After that, we had a nice chat with Texas Mack at the guesthouse and our taxi arrived to the airport. It was probably the easiest check in I remember: just weigh it, no extra charges for sports equipment, and send off to oversize. The airline allowed one piece of checked luggage for 25kg and the bike was included as part of that. The flight itself only had light turbulence and we breezed through passport control on both ends. The bike was even wheeled out directly to the baggage claim.
There was time to enjoy some nice dinner at the Japanese restaurant that Sophia and I usually go to, and then the next day unpack everything from the trip. It was quite a smooth process.
Reality starts the next day with three days of meetings and prep work to start the upcoming semester. Nobody wants to go back to reality, especially after a life changing trip like the one I had and all that happened. Still, at least for now, reality hasn't hit yet. I'm sure in a few months time it will. Then it will be a repeat of what already took place prior and the entire horse and pony show will continue.
One strategy I came up with on the flight to make things more bearable is to set up checkpoints throughout the year and celebrate at each one. This could be for example a party or a mini trip (say to Japan or Hong Kong) to celebrate some wins along the way.
I timed these checkpoints with the expiration dates of the various options I am trading. As mentioned earlier, when you short options, you receive a credit for the premium upfront but this also ties up margin in your brokerage account. In other words, it reduces your buying power. You can't use this credit to go to town and buy other stocks and options etc.. There is a key condition for this margin to be released and credit is yours to keep: the options must expire worthless.
This creates several dilemmas. If the market is in your favor, you can always buy back to close the options when you near expiration. You'll make some profit if you do this, but never the full premium credit (because you partially bought it back). You must have the resolve to wait until expiration. This is despite the unlikely possibility that the stock suddenly turns around and tanks at the last minute. Then you're assigned to buy shares at the higher price and you will lose money. The more likely outcome is that the stock continues to climb and then you wish you had shorted at a higher strike price. When it happens, you simply accept the premium you got earlier is yours to keep and move on. If, on the other hand, you can see the market is not in your favor then you can roll the option further into the future. The only problem with doing that is it continues to tie up your buying power and there is nothing to celebrate on the expiration day.
But for what it's worth, I calculated on the plane there are at least six major checkpoints to celebrate some wins
Sept 20: multiple options expire, the biggest potential win with Sofi Technologies that could land me over $2000. At this point in time, it is the most likely win.
Oct 4: Reddit short put options expire, could net a win of $1500
Oct 18: The biggest bet of them all, a $6000 premium short put with a bitcoin mining stock option. This is the riskiest bet and the one I'm most nervous about. On the other hand, also the biggest potential celebration.
Nov 15: First set of long put Trump options expire on an election speculation play mentioned in a previous entry. Of course by this time, the biggest celebration would be if Kamala Harris wins the election and this speculation actually works in my favor. Technically there is nothing to stop Trump from running again in 2028, but for all intents and purposes he would be finished. Certainly his stock would be done which is what the speculation is all about.
Dec 20: First set of Nvidia options expire, but this time they are long call options. If Nvidia goes the way as predicted, this could end up making a fortune.
Jan 17: Second set of Trump long put options expire on the election speculation play
Further into the future, at the end of next school year we have June 20 2025 for when the second set of Nvidia call options expire. The potential for Nvidia to go through the roof is unprecedented so will be keeping a close eye on all those.
None of this is financial advice, and anyone who would want to copy my reckless plays is equally as reckless. But it's mainly done to have these checkpoints to break up the long year and have these mini parties throughout.
After all, if you just got a $6000 premium in your account and it financed a life changing cycle tour then it would be worth celebrating. But at this point we can't say for sure yet.
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