The first two days in Dubai, well basically one full day and two nights were revealing a problem of the good kind:  there is simply too much to do here, and a plan needs to be made.   My host had earlier asked what I was up to and I told her, "Well it's a combination of tourism and life reconaissance.  I'm pleasantly shocked by what I found here and so need to focus."  I was hoping to throw in that my plan was really to leave China because of the political situation, but she was very much in control of the conversation and not about to let me hijack it with this topic.

But with only a week or so left in Dubai, I really did need to focus and start planning the rest of this time here a lot more effectively.  I would first go to Starbucks and sit down to try and come up with something.

What is becoming quite obvious now is that if there is going to be a replacement to expat living and working in China, then the Middle East is it.  When it comes to your intuition, sometimes you just know if a place is going to work out or not.  It's like reading the tea leaves.  This isn't to say it is perfect, I'm sure there are a ton of negatives, not to mention I've only been here a few days and am barely scratching the surface.

Goodness knows how I could get my wife on board with this idea or sell it to her.  There is also the need to start doing some networking in the short time I'm here.  A mentor friend back in Shanghai said you know what, don't worry about all this now, just go with the flow and enjoy the trip.  I think he is right.

But then all I can say is the beginning time here has revealed a sense of joy and purpose, and a sense of incredible opportunity with long-term possibilities.  The vibes here are off the chain.  In many ways it reminded me of when I first came to China and the country was moving in the right direction before Xi.  Way back then, it was the same sort of sense I got after a few days that China would work out.  It lasted over 20 years.  So maybe something similar can happen here and it's time for a change anyway.  

If anyone reads all this drivel over the long term, then we need to flashback to that Thailand trip 6 months ago when I met essentially who I'll call Dad Version 2.0   Unlike my real Dad who disowned us, this guy, around the same age, actually lived out what he talked.  I'm just speculating here, but Version 2.0 maybe told his partner 'We're living in Pattaya and I'm supporting you' and that's that.  At any rate, what impressed me about him is that he knew what he wanted and put his foot down on it.

Sadly, my real Dad did not.  It surely explains the ongoing struggle and life confusion he passed down to me that I'm trying to overcome.  I mean how else do you explain his insecurity if he would leave a will to his descendants in 2005, then secretly change that in 2014 to give everything to a woman he met on the internet out of loneliness?  I am convinced she had something to do with it and used undue influence to manipulate the will.  But sadly, all that would be notoriously hard to prove in a court.

There is no way that Version 2.0 would have stood for that nonsense, and he was not shy to admit his Pattaya life plan and what he wanted.  That is why I listened to him with the utmost respect back then.  That conversation had gone on for multiple hours at a bar outside his compound.   At that time in the blog I left out what he told me.  Now we're gonna hear it.

He said, "Look no further than the Middle East.  It checks all the boxes on what you need and want for your pre-retirement plan.  As I said, you could bank enough cash with your skills and find a job that pays high enough that you could retire in 10-15 years.  Then you could be living in Pattaya full time too just like I am.  Or you could be splitting your retirement time between multiple destinations.  But choose the Middle East because that part of the region wants to integrate into the world long-term and they are serious about learning English"

I then did some Google research just now on the economic outlook for Dubai and other surrounding areas in the next 10-15 years and it matched exactly what he said.  Plus everything I was seeing now on this trip seemed to fit into his overall assessment.

Extrapolating big time from all of this, it really made me question what is going on with China and US relations in geopolitics.  The metaphor I came up with is this: the competition between China and the US is like two alpha males jockeying for global status and position.  In the process they are both losing since they refuse to find common ground or compromise.  The way to win in politics is to achieve cooperation and view the playing field from an abundance mentality.  It is not a zero-sum game where if one person wins the other loses.  I would say President Xi is the root of the problem for this.  He blames the US side for a cold war mentality, but he is the one projecting that very same thing.  Everything he does is from a perspective that China is going to reclaim its place in history and have the others bow down to his highness, just like the emperors did back in ancient times.  The US has no choice but to respond to this chest puffing.  Regardless if it is Trump or Biden at the helm, the whole thing becomes a worsening protectionist trade war.

Meanwhile, other countries and regions with a more strategic outlook are standing back and observing the conflict, as well as positioning themselves to reap the benefits of both big powers.  Most certainly, the UAE is one of those strategic players.  They would realize it makes absolutely no difference if Trump or Biden is in power, they are smart enough to negotiate with either one.

With all that aside, it was time to head to Starbucks and start planning.