The hosts invited me for dinner, this time I could make it.  We had a lovely meal and chatted for hours over wine and cognac.

The conversation was way too lengthy to transcribe the whole thing so I won't bother, but we touched on many key topics.  One of them is how the wife does remote work with international logistics where she coordinates freight trucks and deals with people all over the world.  Some in the UK don't bargain, but the ones in Turkey do.  I commented that my own wife does something very similar and she also faces the same kind of headaches especially with those buyers who change the prices at the last minute.

Another thing the host said which was super relevant is that "Armenia is like a Latin American country transplated in Asia.  Almost everything is similar.  People go to bed very late, they wake up late, shops might open at 10am if they do but they close late.  Nothing really gets done in the morning.  They also eat dinner late, and guests drop in uninvited all the time.  They'll come in with a bottle of vodka and say 'Make me some dinner it's time to partay'"

I asked, "So what about the partying in general?  I'm not seeing much of it in the city but surely it happens."

She said, "Aha that's because it's all house parties.  You know someone, they say come to my house, bring the alcohol and let's get it on"

So this is how it works.

She went on to say, "All the problems those countries face, we have the same stuff we're dealing with here.  We can relate to them very well.  We all share our emotions, the good and bad.  It's not like China and Japan where everyone hides their emotions and you can never get a hug from someone over there.  Here we hug all the time."

We then talked about the border with Turkey and I asked, "Is there a plan to reopen this?"  

She said, "Yes there is and Turkey is making progress on this but Pashinyan keeps delaying on our end.  Part of the reason is that Turkey made a condition for this to happen which is that Azerbaijan would take back Karabakh.  As you know they did this, Turkey is moving forward and now Pashinyan is stalling."

We then poured more cognac and this time talked about the Ukraine war.  With cognac you can say whatever you want.  I told her the war was pointless and she agreed.  She said, "Yes there's no reason for this war.  The two people groups are the same, they have the same origins and what exactly is the separation?  It's similar to India and Pakistan but for them they are divided on religion, for Russian and Ukraine they have the same religion and culture, so what is the seperation?"

She is of course correct, but then why would Zelensky make a speech like this below?  

Read [my] lips:

Without gas or without you? Without you.

Without light or without you? Without you.

Without water or without you? Without you.

Without food or without you? Without you.

Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as terrible and deadly for us as your "friendship and brotherhood".

But history will put everything in its place.

And we will be with gas, light, water and food ... and without you!

Without wanting to quote that at the dinner table, I kept that speech in mind then tried a softer approach with a speech of my own.

I said "You're basically right, but from my perspective, there has to be something else that is fundamentally different and divisive.  Otherwise why would there be a war?  We think it's pointless but it can't be all for nothing.  Something more is at stake.  You could also ask why Democratics and Republicans in the US are so deeply divided when there is much more in common they can unite over?

"It has to do with two competing and vastly different geopolitical worldviews.  Two polar opposite visions of the future.  Ukraine is demanding a return to 1991 borders, including Crimea.  You can find all this and more in Zelensky's peace plan.  Russia encroached on their territory piece by piece since well before 2014.  The latest invasion in 2022 only continued the Russian aggression.  All of Europe is worried that if Russia can take Ukraine then they won't stop.  Poland will be next, and so forth, and yes including the Czech Republic.  For all we know, NATO really is a paper tiger."

"The vision Russia has for the future is very different.  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin never let that go, and his bitterness has made it his personal mission to recreate that empire.  What's more the US and Europe are sending Ukraine weapons etc.. for their own national security.  They realize that if Russia takes Ukraine, it is a threat to their own security interests.  Zelensky also knows this and he sees Ukraine as the last holdout to save the current world order, as problematic as it might still be now.  A new world order led by Putin and Xi Jinping would be not worth living in."

I went on to say, "Peace is very possible and so is an end to this war but it's not the way Trump proposes in 24 hours.  If Trump wins the next election or not, the onus is still on Russia to pull their tanks out of Ukraine and return the occupied territories.  Zelensky will negotiate with whoever is in the White House to that end.  Basically the ball is in Putin's court, he started the war and he can end it.  What Ukraine wants is security guarantees so it can recover from all this devastation, become prosperous and form strong trading relationships with multiple countries including Turkey and the Gulf.  It would be the economic boom of a lifetime.  For this to happen, they would much rather be aligned with the West and potentially join NATO in a similar way as what some people in Armenia want.

I finished with, "Maybe this is totally off base, but I really do think that peace in Ukraine will mean strong trading relationships in the whole region, as well as the reopening of the Turkish border and maybe even setting the stage towards reconciliation with Armenia and Azerbaijan.  But I can say this for sure, Russia winning will mean the complete opposite of everything I just said."

At this point I partially quoted Zelensky and said that "In geopolitics there are two main worldviews.  One is globalization backed by the western powers, the other is fragmentation spawned by Russia.  It is as simple as that.  You look at any region broken by fragmentation and at some point you can trace it back to Russia.  Vladimir Putin has a documented track record of meddling in other countries' elections and causing destabilization.  So yes sure, maybe the US is no longer the world policeman but we can bet that Putin sure doesn't have our interests in mind."

She said, "That was quite a well informed and smart commentary, I think it makes a lot of sense.  You are right actually.  Let's drink more cognac and cheers for peace."

So we did and talked for hours more.  At some point I realized I would have to go to bed as there was going to be more sick biking tomorrow.